Morning Brief
Circular Financing Is Back, Now With a $500B Wall Street Consortium, and Oil Just Complicated Tomorrow’s CPI
Nvidia signed six of Wall Street’s biggest names, Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR, to raise $500B for AI infrastructure, and...
Rate Relief Won the Argument, but the Payroll Revisions Are the Bigger Story
Friday's jobs shock resolved in the market's favor: records across the board, September hike odds crushed to 44% from the high 50s. But buried in the same...
The Labor Market Didn’t Just Crack, It Broke: July Payrolls Fell 23,000
Wall Street expected a gain of 83,000. It got an outright loss of 23,000, the clearest confirmation yet of Wednesday’s ADP warning. Unemployment held at 4.1%...
The Labor Market Just Cracked a Little: ADP Missed, ISM Services Employment Contracted, and Gold Jumped 4%
Wednesday’s ADP print rose just 44,000, less than half the 70,000 expected and a sharp deceleration from June. Buried inside the ISM Services report, the...
AMD Doubled Data-Center Revenue and Fell 8%: The Delta Rule Claims Two More, With the Jobs Report Two Days Out
Yesterday’s brief argued the market pays for the gap between results and expectations, not the raw growth rate. Overnight it was proven twice more. AMD grew...
Palantir Broke the Rule: A 93% Growth Quarter That the Market Actually Rewarded, and the Dow at a Record
All season, a beat was not enough. Then Palantir grew revenue 93%, raised full-year guidance by $500M, posted a Rule of 40 score of 155%, and jumped 16%. The...
Trump Called Off the Strikes: Oil Slides, Yields Ease, and August Opens on a Peace Trade Into the Jobs Report
The weekend delivered the de-escalation the tape had been begging for. Trump called off a “massive” attack on Iran and announced Hormuz talks for Monday,...
Amazon Passed the Test, Apple Failed It: The Invoice Thesis Closes the Month With a Clean Sweep
Amazon grew AWS 37%, raised capex to $220B, and jumped 13% because the market saw the return. Apple beat on iPhone but guided weak on supply constraints and...
The Invoice, Settled: Microsoft’s Azure Bought an 8% Rally, Meta’s 91% Cash-Flow Collapse Cost 8%
The thesis this brief has tracked for four weeks resolved in a single night. Microsoft grew Azure 43% and rose 8%. Meta’s free cash flow fell 91% to $784M on...
Oil Gapped Below $90 and the Market Exhaled: A Relief Rally Into the Busiest Week of the Quarter
The US paused its strikes on Iran over the weekend, Brent fell as much as 7.4% below $90, Treasury yields dropped, and futures surged with the Nasdaq 100 up...